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KC Economy Solid, But Could Be Stronger

June 21, 2018

Kansas City’s economy is doing well, but could be doing better according to Dr. Frank Lenk, MARC’s Director of Research Services, who presented at the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce’s Mid-Year Economic Forecast event.

According to Lenk, the U.S. economy is in the midst of the second longest expansion in history. This expansion has not been particularly robust in terms of the rate of growth, but it has been consistent.

For the most part, Kansas City’s economy has kept pace with the nation, but there is some concern that it is falling behind some peer metros.

The full presentation is below:

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KCMO Leads Metro in Total Population Growth

May 24, 2018

Kansas City, Missouri, is the region’s largest city, and also its fastest growing. The city added 6,825 new residents between 2016 and 2017. Overland Park, Olathe, Lee’s Summit and Liberty round out the top five.

In terms of rate of growth, Spring Hill, Kansas tops the list as their population grew 7.5 percent between 2016 and 2017. Basehor, Smithville, Parkville, Peculiar and Kearney all saw their populations grow by more than 3 percent over the year.

fastest-growing-cities-2018
SOURCE: US Census Bureau Population Estimates 2017

The data for all cities can be found here.

Where We Get Our College Grads

May 18, 2018

Some interesting new data was released earlier this week that sheds some light on what institutions provide Kansas City with degreed workers. The data  from EMSI, available via the Wall Street Journal, shows that the Kansas City metro tends to draw recent college graduates from a wide area in the Midwest.

Topping the list is our very own UMKC. Over 60 percent of UMKC graduates stay in the Kansas City area. The metro also attracts a third of KU graduates, a quarter of K-State graduates and about 16 percent of Mizzou graduates. Missouri State is also a key contributor, with 13 percent of its graduates moving to Kansas City after earning their degrees.

Although the shares are smaller, the region also draws a significant number of graduates from regional schools like Creighton, Iowa State, Nebraska, Wichita State and Drake.

KC College Migration

For comparison, let’s look at Indianapolis, a metro that is similar in size and economic performance to Kansas City. In terms of attracting people with degrees, Indy dominates the state (and there are a lot of colleges and universities in Indiana), but it does not have a significant influx from other states.

IND College Migration just map

Contrast these two maps with the Dallas-Ft. Worth map below. Like Kansas City and Indianapolis, Dallas is a major draw for graduates from nearby colleges and universities; however, Dallas also is a big draw from graduates from a much larger area as well.  Granted, Dallas has a much larger economy than Kansas City and Indianapolis, but it does say something that they are able to attract degree holders in larger numbers from a much larger area. Dallas’ economy is creating a lot of jobs. For the year ending in March 2018, it added over 100,000 jobs, while Kansas City and Indianapolis added 16,600 and 19,200 jobs, respectively.

Dallas College Migration just map

Clearly, a larger, growing economy will provide more job options to graduates as they begin their careers. They will also be willing to move across the country to take advantage of these options.

While the comparisons to other metros are interesting, we think the biggest takeaway here is how important the ties to the local colleges and universities are to the Kansas City region’s workforce and economy. We may feel that Kansas City’s dynamic economy would be the best choice for recent grads from anywhere in the country, but the fact is, the vast majority of new grads entering our labor force will be from regional schools. Even in places like Dallas, Seattle or San Jose that draw graduates from farther away, the majority come from closer schools.

This is why initiatives that bring industry and education together to discuss workforce needs and challenges, like the Talent-to-Industry Exchange, are so important. We need to make sure that the colleges and universities that send the most graduates to the Kansas City metro offer degree programs that align well with the industries that drive our regional economy.

Through KC Rising, GradForce KC and other regional initiatives, we are seeing an unprecedented level of collaboration between the region’s businesses and educational institutions. Building up our human capital is vital for the region to thrive in today’s talent-based economy.

KC Economy – Stability in a Sea of Uncertainty

November 3, 2017

We presented  the region’s 2018 Economic Forecast last week at The Greater Kansas City Chamber’s annual Economic Forecast Breakfast.  The economy is doing well with no sign of a recession in the foreseeable future.  Its steady pace since the end of the Great Recession makes it a beacon of stability with in a sea of uncertainty created by a combination of recent natural disasters and on-going national policy debates.  With growth rates near the economy’s potential, unemployment at a 16-year low, rising wages and no inflation, the economy is experiencing a rare “Goldilocks” moment.  KC’s economy is matching the U.S. economy stride for stride, growing at almost precisely the same rate, and will add 18,000 to 20,000 jobs per year over the next two years.  Yet matching average U.S. growth is no longer enough for the region to achieve its aspirations of being a top-tier metro.  Compared to its peers (defined as the 15 metros immediately larger and smaller than KC by population), KC is falling behind. Its growth in GDP, median household income and quality jobs—jobs that pay above the median wage or require education levels that give them a career path to that wage—ranks 19th, 24th, and 20th, respectively, among the 31 peers.  To address these challenges, civic leaders need to stay focused on improving the drivers of regional prosperity – trade, talented people, and innovation and entrepreneurship—which is the purpose KC Rising, a partnership of civic organizations involving hundreds of business, education and community volunteers.

The full text report can be found here.

Source of Metro Employment Growth Shifting East?

October 5, 2017

All told, the Kansas City MSA is in a good employment groove. On average, the metro has been adding about 25,000 new jobs a year since 2015. This stability is nice considering Kansas City employment growth has been something of a roller-coaster ride coming out of the recession. This suggests the economy is strong and adding jobs at a rate above our historic norms. But there is an interesting shift when you look at the sources of these jobs.

CH1 KC Trend
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

For a number of years, it was not uncommon for the Kansas side of the metro to be the job growth leader. In fact, from the January 2012 to January 2015, the Kansas side generated 56 percent of the metro’s total jobs. Since then, the Missouri side has seen employment growth surge while employment growth on the Kansas side slowed considerably.

Ch2 Shift

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

 

From September 2015 to September 2017, 78 percent of the metro’s employment growth was in Missouri. (This data is not seasonally adjusted so we need to use consistent months when calculating change to remove seasonal factors).

This local shift correlates with some significant changes at the state level. The chart below shows that statewide, Missouri and Kansas had similar annual employment growth from 2012 to 2014, with both adding somewhere between 15,000 and 25,000 new jobs a year This was impressive for Kansas, given that it has less than half of Missouri’s total population. Missouri employment started to spike in 2015, while Kansas saw employment growth begin to slow. Missouri has been adding about 50,000 new jobs a year lately while employment change has actually turned negative in Kansas.

Ch 3 State

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

 

There are several positive reasons why the Missouri side is leading in metro employment growth —  Cerner’s Bannister Campus and continued downtown redevelopment to name a few. Still, it is impossible to ignore the correlation between the local shift and the change in fortunes of the two states. Kansas ranked last in the nation in non-farm employment growth for the year ending in August, declining by 9,000 jobs, while Missouri ranked 14th, adding 52,300 jobs. Could Kansas-side businesses be so adversely affected just because the State is performing poorly? Sure, there could be some state government contracts that have been trimmed, but this doesn’t seem like a big enough reason for such a large shift. This is an important change in our region and one that doesn’t have a clear explanation based on data.

As we said at the beginning, Kansas City is adding jobs at a good pace. You have to look under the hood to see that Missouri’s hot streak is largely responsible. Imagine Kansas City’s job growth potential if both states were firing on all cylinders at the same time. We’d love to get your thoughts in the comments.

 

The data used for these charts can be found here.

KC economic growth slows, but past not as bad as thought

September 22, 2017

Kansas City’s economy grew by 1 percent between 2015 and 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). That figure is just as unimpressive as it sounds. Of the 53 metros with at least 1 million people, this rate ranks us 38th.
As it has for the last three years, San Jose was home to the fastest growing economy at 5.9 percent. San Francisco, Raleigh, Austin and Seattle (all tech hubs, by the way) round out the top five cities for economic growth.
There was some good news for Kansas City, but as it turns out, it is old good news. This data included significant revisions to historic data. We have been somewhat disappointed in Kansas City’s GDP performance in recent years. It seemed like the local economy had some good momentum in terms of job and income growth, but the GDP numbers were just not reflecting it. As it turns out, our concerns may have been justified. The chart below shows the difference in Kansas City’s recent GDP growth in the current and previous releases.

GDP 2016 Chart 1

Looking at the revised data (in dark blue), Kansas City’s economy did not really begin to rebound from the recession until 2012. When it did begin to grow, it grew at a healthier rate than we previously thought. The chart below shows that it grew at a rate much closer to the national rate.

GDP 2016 Chart 2
This comparison puts the disappointing 1 percent growth rate in some perspective. The national economy has slowed, and KC has followed suit. Even though we are trending with the national economy, it is concerning that we have been growing more slowly over the last three years.
To say the global economy is in flux would be an understatement. What is becoming clear is that some regions will lead the next economy, and some will follow. Given our strength in key industry sectors, we believe that Kansas City has the potential to be one of the leaders. We must begin to understand the obstacles holding us back (see KC Rising)  so we can set a leading pace.

Amazon HQ2: The Case for Kansas City

September 21, 2017

Amazon set the economic development community abuzz recently by announcing its search for a new, second headquarters. This massive development would bring 50,000 good paying jobs ($100,000 annual wages on average) and $5 billion worth of development to the metro that Amazon chooses.

These are game changing numbers. For a little perspective, there are about 74,000 jobs in downtown Kansas City, Missouri (inside the loop and down to the crossroads). There are comparable numbers of jobs along the College Boulevard corridor.  Amazon HQ2 would, by itself, be the third-largest employment center in the metro.

Does Kansas City have a chance? PC magazine sure liked us. The New York Times did not.

We don’t know all the details of exactly what Amazon is looking for. In part, Amazon is looking for a city that can:

  • Supply a lot of talented workers.
  • Make it easy for those workers to get around (daily commutes and air travel).
  • Provide a business-friendly environment.

The Kansas City region is competing against many metros, and some would appear to be ahead of us on these particular issues. But there is one key metric where we more than hold our own.

Kansas City IS a tech hub.

Kansas City has a strong location quotient (LQ) of 1.43 in computer and math occupations. This means the share of our workforce employed in computer and math occupations is 43 percent larger than the US share. Out of the 53 metro areas with at least 1 million people, our computer and math LQ ranks 13th.

Amazon HQ2 Chart.png
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Even with this strong base, Kansas City will need to demonstrate a robust talent pipeline to supply enough workers to meet Amazon’s expectations. Yes, computer and math occupations are a relative strength for us, but we currently have just 44,000 workers with these jobs, and most of these workers are already gainfully employed. Amazon will need 50,000 more.

No metro has a bullpen of 50,000 tech workers just waiting for a call, so finding 50,000 talented new employees will be a challenge for all metros pursuing Amazon. This is an opportunity for Kansas City to propose some innovative ideas about how we will build a talent pipeline.

Amazon will look at other, more subjective, criteria as well. Issues like transit, air service and overall quality of life will all weigh heavily. On these topics, Kansas City can tout recent progress and current and future plans.

Landing such a big economic development prize might be a bit of a reach, but going through the process is still worthwhile. The new economy is tech based. Winning economies are going to be those that can grow and attract tech talent. The process we would go through to land 50,000 hi-tech Amazon employees would also increase our capacity to grow our tech workforce and enhance the success of our existing tech firms. Kansas City’s tech sector will benefit from this effort and the number of tech employees will grow, even if they don’t necessarily work for Amazon.

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