The most recent population estimates show that the Kansas City MSA is picking up the pace population-wise.
The 14-county metro population now stands at 2,104,509. This is an increase of 90,774 since 2010. To give you some scale for that growth, we’ve essentially added the population of another Lee’s Summit over the past six years.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Kansas City’s growth has been fairly consistent. We saw annual growth of about 15,000 a year between 2013 and 2015, but that growth jumped to over 20,000 between 2015 and 2016. Again for scale, that was like adding a city the size of Raymore in one year.
What’s more encouraging is the makeup of this population growth. Population growth comes from two sources, natural growth and migration. Natural growth is a simple formula, births minus deaths. In the Kansas City metro we have seen natural growth holding steady at about 10,000 to 12,000 a year. Migration growth has two components, international and domestic. International migration into the Kansas City region has also been consistent in recent years (between 3,000 and 4,200 a year). Domestic migration has been more variable. Net domestic migration was very small in recent years, but it spiked in 2016 to 6,693.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Domestic migration is important to look at because it can be indicative of a healthy economy. If people perceive more economic opportunities in a region, they are more likely to migrate there. A look at some of our peer metros shows that a positive net domestic migration is no guarantee. Metros like Austin, Nashville and Denver saw net domestic migration top 20,000 last year, while some metros like Cleveland and St. Louis saw declines.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
All told, there may not be a better economic indicator than population growth, particularly domestic migration. Yes, more people moving in means we need more housing, shops, roads, etc. but more importantly, seeing significant domestic migration means that more people are choosing to move to Kansas City from elsewhere in the country. This strongly suggests that they are finding good economic opportunities here. As we mentioned, migration figures can fluctuate greatly from year to year, but the most recent data shows a Kansas City population, and economy, on the rise.
Our KC Economy team from Mid-America Regional Council joined several hundred of our close friends on Tuesday, Feb. 28, to celebrate Year Two of KC Rising — a year that saw a growing momentum in a wide range of initiatives designed to strengthen our regional economy. KC Rising’s initiatives focus on three key economic drivers: Trade (in globally competitive sectors); Ideas (innovation and entrepreneurship); and People (human capital).
KC Rising’s goal is to move the Kansas City region into the top 10 among our 30 peer metros in three key measures we call the “Big Dots” — the number of quality jobs in the region, our gross regional product, and our median household income.
MARC is helping KC Rising track the region’s progress toward these three goals with a new website launched this week, www.kcrisingmetrics.org. The site provides detailed data for the three “Big Dots” and the systems and strategies behind them.
Currently, the region ranks 15th among peer metros in GDP, 12th in quality jobs, and 12th in median household income. Each of those is higher than what you might expect by population (where, by design, KC ranks right in the middle of its peers at 16th). But in addition to the rank, our metrics look at the percentage change for each indicator. There, things aren’t so rosy with GDP and quality jobs; we held steady on our ranking, but didn’t grow as fast as our peers. Median Household Income tells a different story. There, we grew 9th fastest, up from 19th a year ago.
The website is organized in a bottom-up structure, with 13 regional initiatives (categorized under trade, ideas and people) that are helping to implement adopted strategies (measured by 10 primary indicators) that will help systems function better (measured by another set of 11 primary indicators), which should move the needle on the three “Big Dot” goals.
Use the links for each indicator to drill down and see the actual numbers for the last two years, find out which metro leads the pack, and see who we have to pass to get into the top 10.
It’s a wealth of data that we’ll continue to add to and update. We hope you’ll find the site a useful tool to track regional progress.
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of presenting to the Lee’s Summit Economic Development Council’s Civic Roundtable. We had a good discussion that focused on:
- understanding the changing global economy
- the Kansas City area’s economic trends and
- Lee’s Summit’s population and economic growth
Here is a copy of the presentation.
Earlier today, Frank Lenk, MARC’s director of research services, presented the economic forecast MARC prepares for the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce each year. The forecast calls for the Kansas City area economy to add 19,000 jobs over the coming year, with economic output expected to grow about 2 percent. This rate of economic growth is currently sufficient to put downward pressure on unemployment and upward pressure on wages, resulting in rising prosperity that is more broadly shared. Productivity, measured as output per worker, has been flat or declining both locally and nationally, however, which may make future expansion of jobs and income more difficult.
“Not bad, but I expected so much more.”
No, that’s not a movie review, or a food critic’s take on a recent dining experience. It’s our reaction to the latest metro-level GDP numbers for Kansas City.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the ultimate measure of how well an economy is doing. It is the sum of all economic activity within an economy in one year.
Kansas City’s economy grew by 1.5 percent between 2014 and 2015. That’s not bad, but certainly not great. The region has performed both better and worse than this in recent years (see the chart above), but 1.5 percent is somewhat disappointing because it doesn’t seem to capture the way the Kansas City economy feels right now. Employment is at an all-time high, incomes are rising, and construction activity appears to be on the rise, so 1.5 percent just doesn’t feel right. But the economy doesn’t really do “feelings” very well. It is a strict numbers game and our numbers are just, well… okay. What this tells us is that despite some recent economic wins, we still have a long way to go, especially when we look at how we are doing with respect to our peer metros. Of the 53 metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, our 1.5 percent growth rate ranks us at number 42. The metros towards the top of this list have been able find a balance between:
- A good business climate where companies can find the talent they need to grow.
- An opportunity-rich environment where people can find career options (and training) for quality jobs that can improve their lives.
- A vibrant community where people want to live and work.
We are not sounding an alarm here. Kansas City’s economy has come a long way in recent years and we are definitely in the race to be a strong competitor in the global economy. But the pace of the race is quickening, and we will need more than 1.5 percent growth to move up with the front-runners.
Here is a link to the data.
The median household income in Kansas City grew 6 percent between 2014 and 2015 according to the latest census data released this morning. Adjusted for inflation, our metro median income grew from $57,062 to $60,502.
These are good numbers to be sure, but even more impressive is the fact that this 6 percent increase ranks us 5th nationally among the 53 largest metros (those with a population of at least 1 million).
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
There was a lot of data released today and we will continue analyzing it. Stay tuned for more.
Kansas City is growing as a destination for international immigrants. Over the last five years more than 15,000 foreign born residents have come to call Kansas City home. In fact, international migration growth has accounted for virtually all of Kansas City’s net migration growth over the past five years, as the region saw net declines in domestic migration between 2010 and 2012.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
While immigration helps keep our population growing, it can also be instrumental in boosting the economy. According to Inc. magazine, 13 percent of the U.S. population is foreign born, but this population accounts for over one-fourth of all new businesses. Fortune magazine tells us that more than 40 percent of Fortune 500 companies were founded by foreign-born individuals or their children.
The numbers ring true in Kansas City as well. Here, the foreign-born population is relatively small, just 6 percent of the total population, but this population accounts for 13 percent of all local small business owners.
Gateways KC is a new initiative designed to create a more welcoming community for immigrants and, as a result, strengthen the regional economy. The Kansas City metro area is one of 20 Gateways for Growth communities selected by a national partnership between the New American Economy and Welcoming America.
GatewaysKC will focus on:
- Creating a broader understanding of the economic value immigrants bring to our region.
- Helping postsecondary institutions attract foreign students and encourage students to stay in the community and create businesses and fill jobs after they graduate..
- Helping immigrants become more engaged in and contribute to civic life.